Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Today’s only mortgage rate-relevant events come during afternoon trading, meaning today’s biggest move in bonds and mortgage pricing likely will be later today. First is the 10-year Treasury Note auction that will give us an indication of demand for long-term debt. This is pertinent to the mortgage market because rates are based on long-term mortgage securities. If there is a decent demand from investors, we should see strength in bonds and possibly an intraday improvement to rates shortly after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET. However, a weak sale- particularly a lack of international buyers, may cause rates to move higher by the end of the day. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold.

Medium

Unknown

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The auction will be followed by the release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET. Market participants are looking for bits of information that will allow them to form predictions about the Fed’s next move(s) during the upcoming FOMC meetings. The general consensus is that the Fed will make a quarter-point reduction at both of the remaining 2025 meetings, but that was before important data was shelved because of the government shutdown. It is worth noting though, the last FOMC meeting was followed by revised economic predictions and a press conference with Fed Chair Powell. This means the likelihood of seeing a significant surprise in the minutes is relatively low.

Medium

Unknown

Fed Talk

Tomorrow’s only scheduled economic data was the weekly unemployment update, but that won’t happen because of the shutdown. This is the second week without these jobless benefit claims. The shutdown leaves us mostly with just another round of Fed speeches to drive trading. Tomorrow’s batch includes video-taped opening remarks for a community banking conference by Fed Chairman Powell. These speeches often are about mundane topics, but sometimes they involve discussions about the economy, inflation and how the Fed reacts to those matters. Any surprise comments, particularly about the Fed's thoughts about the employment sector, inflation or future plans with key interest rates, could cause a strong reaction in the financial and mortgage markets.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Fed Talk

Float / Lock Recommendation